👥 2-Year Customer LTV

DTC cohort analysis — net revenue per acquired customer over 24 months. Generated 2026-05-04 16:11.

Definitions:
Cohort = month of customer's first DTC order. Wholesale orders excluded.
LTV at day N = average net revenue per customer in the cohort within N days of their first order. Net revenue = subtotal − total_discounts (excludes shipping + tax).
Complete cohorts = cohorts where ≥730 days have elapsed since the cohort end-of-month — only these can show a real 2-year number. Cells marked value* are partial.
Repeat rate = % of customers placing ≥2 orders within 24 months. Loyal rate = ≥3 orders within 24 months.
Channel = order_journey.first_visit_source on the customer's first order, normalized.
Headline — Blended 2-Year LTV (cohorts 2023-01 → 2024-04)
Blended 2-year LTV
$118.61
avg over 16 complete cohorts
1-year LTV
$87.55
74% of 2-yr value
30-day LTV (AOV proxy)
$42.87
day-1 to day-30 spend
LTV multiple (2yr ÷ 30d)
2.77x
lifetime expansion ratio
Repeat rate (≥2 orders)
43.7%
within 24 months
Loyal rate (≥3 orders)
28.3%
within 24 months
Avg orders / customer
2.66
in 24 months
Subscriber acq rate
6.6%
first-order subscribers
LTV Curve — Cumulative Net Revenue per Customer (months 0 → 24)
Averaged across all 16 complete cohorts (29,577 customers). Day cutoffs are approximate (month K = day K×30).
📊 Projected 2-Year LTV — Recent Cohorts
How this works: For each cohort that hasn't reached 24 months yet, we take its actual cumulative LTV at its current age, divide by the % of 2-yr LTV historically captured by that age (the "velocity curve" from complete cohorts), and scale to month 24.
Example: a cohort at 12 months with $90 actual LTV — if complete cohorts captured 73% of their 2-yr value by month 12 — projects to $90 / 0.73 = $123.
Caveats: assumes recent cohorts will retain like historical ones. If product mix or subscriber rate has shifted materially, projections drift. Cohorts younger than 6 months are flagged "very low confidence" — small denominator, high variance.
Recent-cohort projection (last 6, ≥6 mo old)
$99.94
5,661 customers
vs Historical blended 2-yr LTV
-15.7%
baseline: $118.61
All partial cohorts (weighted)
$97.26
27,761 customers across 21 cohorts
Actual 2-yr LTV (complete cohorts) Projected 2-yr LTV (partial cohorts)  ·  Dashed horizontal line = blended historical 2-yr LTV ($118.61)
Per-Cohort Projection Table
Cohort Customers % Sub Age Actual LTV @ Age Velocity @ Age Projected 2-yr LTV vs Blended Confidence
2024-05 1,397 3.5% 23 mo $87.39 98.3% $88.95 -25.0% high
2024-06 1,080 4.4% 22 mo $95.92 96.1% $99.83 -15.8% high
2024-07 1,003 5.5% 21 mo $91.36 93.9% $97.27 -18.0% high
2024-08 1,184 5.0% 20 mo $86.75 91.9% $94.36 -20.4% high
2024-09 1,183 5.0% 19 mo $89.09 89.8% $99.19 -16.4% high
2024-10 1,354 6.2% 18 mo $87.04 87.7% $99.27 -16.3% high
2024-11 2,070 3.8% 17 mo $82.17 85.7% $95.93 -19.1% medium
2024-12 1,469 4.3% 16 mo $71.94 83.7% $85.99 -27.5% medium
2025-01 1,358 8.6% 15 mo $83.85 81.4% $102.99 -13.2% medium
2025-02 1,268 6.9% 14 mo $85.36 79.0% $108.03 -8.9% medium
2025-03 1,627 8.4% 13 mo $77.46 76.7% $101.05 -14.8% medium
2025-04 1,795 6.9% 12 mo $74.75 73.6% $101.61 -14.3% medium
2025-05 1,061 8.6% 11 mo $75.47 71.1% $106.21 -10.5% low
2025-06 848 7.5% 10 mo $57.52 68.2% $84.36 -28.9% low
2025-07 804 10.8% 9 mo $68.29 64.9% $105.27 -11.2% low
2025-08 828 8.1% 8 mo $64.27 61.8% $104.06 -12.3% low
2025-09 908 8.6% 7 mo $56.15 58.8% $95.56 -19.4% low
2025-10 1,212 10.3% 6 mo $56.32 55.1% $102.27 -13.8% low
2025-11 2,291 9.2% 5 mo $48.18 52.1% $92.46 -22.0% very low
2025-12 1,323 8.7% 4 mo $44.92 48.9% $91.93 -22.5% very low
2026-01 1,698 9.1% 3 mo $42.23 45.0% $93.85 -20.9% very low
Velocity @ Age = % of historical 2-yr LTV captured by month K (from complete-cohort curve). Projected 2-yr LTV = Actual LTV @ Age ÷ Velocity @ Age. Confidence: high ≥18 mo · medium 12–17 mo · low 6–11 mo · very low 3–5 mo.
Velocity Curve Reference — % of 2-yr LTV Captured by Month K
Month Cumulative LTV % of 2-yr
Month 1 $42.87 36.4%
Month 2 $48.13 40.9%
Month 3 $52.99 45.0%
Month 4 $57.55 48.9%
Month 5 $61.37 52.1%
Month 6 $64.86 55.1%
Month 7 $69.20 58.8%
Month 8 $72.74 61.8%
Month 9 $76.40 64.9%
Month 10 $80.29 68.2%
Month 11 $83.68 71.1%
Month 12 $86.64 73.6%
Month 13 $90.28 76.7%
Month 14 $93.06 79.0%
Month 15 $95.89 81.4%
Month 16 $98.52 83.7%
Month 17 $100.88 85.7%
Month 18 $103.27 87.7%
Month 19 $105.78 89.8%
Month 20 $108.27 91.9%
Month 21 $110.61 93.9%
Month 22 $113.16 96.1%
Month 23 $115.71 98.3%
Month 24 $117.77 100.0%
Derived from the 16 complete cohorts. Used as the scaling factor for the projection above.
💰 Contribution Margin LTV vs CAC — Are These Cohorts Actually Profitable?
The real profitability question. Gross LTV (revenue per customer) is just an input; what matters is contribution margin per customer compared to cost to acquire them.

Contribution Margin LTV = Gross LTV − COGS − Shipping − Payment Processing.
  • COGS: SUM(line items × cogs_per_unit) per order — ~99% revenue coverage from the COGS table
  • Shipping: actual ShipStation cost per order when matched (2024+); $7.50 fallback for pre-2024 orders
  • Processing: 2.9% × revenue + $0.30/txn (Shopify Payments standard)

CAC = (Meta + Google ad spend in cohort acquisition month) ÷ (# new DTC customers acquired in that month). Treats all paid spend as acquisition cost — slightly overstates CAC since some spend goes to retargeting.

Profitable cohort: CM-LTV / CAC ≥ 1.0x means the cohort's 2-year contribution margin covers what we paid to acquire them. Industry rule of thumb: ≥3x is healthy.
What's NOT modeled: returns/refunds, organic costs (Klaviyo/Attentive subscriptions), warehousing, support, taxes. So actual cohort profit is somewhat lower than CM-LTV.
Gross 2-yr LTV (blended)
$118.61
revenue per customer over 24 mo
CM 2-yr LTV (blended)
$55.14
after COGS / shipping / processing
Gross margin %
46.5%
CM ÷ Gross LTV
Blended CAC
$11.54
paid spend ÷ new customers
CM-LTV : CAC ratio
4.78x
≥1x = profitable, ≥3x = healthy
Cohort profit per customer
$43.60
CM-LTV − CAC
Blended over the 16 complete (≥730d) cohorts: 2023-01 → 2024-04.
Per-Cohort Profitability Table
Cohort Customers Gross LTV − COGS − Shipping − Processing CM 2-yr LTV New Custs Ad Spend (mo) CAC CM ÷ CAC
2023-01 3,713 $174.62 $54.37 $28.99 $6.17 $85.09 3,713 $13,616 $3.67 ✓ 23.20x
2023-02 2,584 $168.72 $51.99 $26.62 $5.89 $84.22 2,584 $25,538 $9.88 ✓ 8.52x
2023-03 2,020 $156.34 $50.66 $24.50 $5.49 $75.69 2,020 $26,157 $12.95 ✓ 5.85x
2023-04 1,912 $126.31 $44.33 $21.71 $4.46 $55.81 1,912 $26,154 $13.68 ✓ 4.08x
2023-05 1,565 $113.19 $36.07 $22.30 $4.12 $50.69 1,565 $24,368 $15.57 ✓ 3.26x
2023-06 1,341 $89.35 $29.24 $16.97 $3.20 $39.94 1,341 $15,066 $11.23 ✓ 3.56x
2023-07 1,305 $112.65 $37.13 $20.03 $3.99 $51.51 1,305 $15,452 $11.84 ✓ 4.35x
2023-08 1,338 $99.80 $32.36 $18.48 $3.55 $45.41 1,338 $13,451 $10.05 ✓ 4.52x
2023-09 1,532 $99.23 $32.31 $18.12 $3.55 $45.25 1,532 $15,743 $10.28 ✓ 4.40x
2023-10 1,565 $93.91 $30.53 $17.57 $3.39 $42.42 1,565 $21,003 $13.42 ✓ 3.16x
2023-11 2,430 $102.61 $34.75 $17.35 $3.63 $46.88 2,430 $21,411 $8.81 ✓ 5.32x
2023-12 1,595 $89.83 $28.94 $17.17 $3.26 $40.47 1,595 $15,273 $9.58 ✓ 4.23x
2024-01 1,642 $97.47 $31.12 $19.67 $3.50 $43.18 1,642 $13,982 $8.52 ✓ 5.07x
2024-02 1,533 $89.89 $29.18 $18.18 $3.28 $39.26 1,533 $26,881 $17.53 ✓ 2.24x
2024-03 1,669 $87.65 $28.15 $16.84 $3.20 $39.45 1,669 $32,040 $19.20 ✓ 2.05x
2024-04 1,833 $83.54 $28.69 $15.95 $3.04 $35.86 1,833 $35,094 $19.15 ✓ 1.87x
2024-05* 1,397 $88.35 $28.21 $14.20 $3.17 $42.77 1,397 $30,316 $21.70 ✓ 1.97x
2024-06* 1,080 $97.38 $30.87 $15.72 $3.51 $47.28 1,080 $29,937 $27.72 ✓ 1.71x
2024-07* 1,003 $92.90 $29.63 $14.98 $3.33 $44.95 1,003 $27,390 $27.31 ✓ 1.65x
2024-08* 1,184 $87.95 $28.31 $15.43 $3.22 $40.98 1,184 $27,233 $23.00 ✓ 1.78x
2024-09* 1,183 $90.31 $27.94 $14.80 $3.25 $44.32 1,183 $22,788 $19.26 ✓ 2.30x
2024-10* 1,354 $88.39 $27.64 $14.65 $3.20 $42.90 1,354 $27,003 $19.94 ✓ 2.15x
2024-11* 2,070 $83.27 $28.86 $13.87 $3.01 $37.53 2,070 $37,811 $18.27 ✓ 2.05x
2024-12* 1,469 $73.09 $25.89 $12.48 $2.66 $32.05 1,469 $19,563 $13.32 ✓ 2.41x
2025-01* 1,358 $85.41 $27.33 $14.77 $3.11 $40.20 1,358 $24,925 $18.35 ✓ 2.19x
2025-02* 1,268 $87.78 $28.83 $14.87 $3.19 $40.89 1,268 $22,764 $17.95 ✓ 2.28x
2025-03* 1,627 $79.01 $25.91 $13.98 $2.91 $36.20 1,627 $41,227 $25.34 ✓ 1.43x
2025-04* 1,795 $76.34 $25.64 $13.17 $2.78 $34.74 1,795 $42,664 $23.77 ✓ 1.46x
2025-05* 1,061 $76.91 $23.68 $13.13 $2.81 $37.30 1,061 $25,469 $24.00 ✓ 1.55x
2025-06* 848 $59.36 $18.37 $11.85 $2.25 $26.89 848 $14,529 $17.13 ✓ 1.57x
2025-07* 804 $70.41 $23.25 $13.59 $2.64 $30.93 804 $14,488 $18.02 ✓ 1.72x
2025-08* 828 $66.03 $21.32 $12.77 $2.48 $29.46 828 $18,703 $22.59 ✓ 1.30x
2025-09* 908 $58.37 $19.03 $12.10 $2.22 $25.02 908 $23,184 $25.53 ✗ 0.98x
2025-10* 1,212 $58.24 $18.63 $12.02 $2.19 $25.39 1,212 $28,151 $23.23 ✓ 1.09x
2025-11* 2,291 $49.86 $18.37 $11.12 $1.89 $18.48 2,291 $50,498 $22.04 ✗ 0.84x
2025-12* 1,323 $47.21 $14.28 $10.07 $1.79 $21.06 1,323 $23,913 $18.08 ✓ 1.17x
2026-01* 1,698 $44.08 $13.23 $9.66 $1.70 $19.49 1,698 $40,287 $23.73 ✗ 0.82x
2026-02* 1,759 $38.58 $12.35 $8.98 $1.50 $15.74 1,759 $38,130 $21.68 ✗ 0.73x
2026-03* 1,493 $35.81 $10.82 $8.76 $1.39 $14.85 1,493 $30,030 $20.11 ✗ 0.74x
2026-04* 1,162 $35.74 $11.36 $7.92 $1.35 $15.10 1,162 $29,998 $25.82 ✗ 0.58x
2026-05* 70 $48.53 $11.85 $7.51 $1.71 $27.46 70 $1,727 $24.68 ✓ 1.11x
Rows with * are partial — 2-yr CM-LTV not yet realized. Highlighted (gold tint) rows are complete cohorts with realized 2-year economics.
CM ÷ CAC: ✓ green = profitable on cohort basis · ✗ red = loss-making. Gold pre-2024 cohorts use a flat $7.50 shipping assumption (ShipStation join only works 2024+).
Subscription split — first-order subscribers vs one-time
First-order type Customers LTV 30d LTV 90d LTV 180d LTV 365d LTV 540d LTV 730d Avg Orders / 2yr
First-order subscriber 1,955 $52.47$84.40$120.16$193.48$239.79$285.62 6.27
One-time first order 27,622 $42.19$50.77$60.95$80.05$93.61$106.79 2.40
Cohorts where 730 days have elapsed only. Subscriber LTV is structurally higher because the recurring stream is locked in at acquisition.
Channel split — by first-touch acquisition source
Channel Customers LTV 30d LTV 90d LTV 180d LTV 365d LTV 540d LTV 730d Avg Orders / 2yr
Unknown 9,883 $47.39$60.56$78.47$117.51$145.13$174.09 3.50
Google 8,955 $40.54$49.09$57.47$71.28$80.31$88.12 2.20
Direct 5,024 $44.08$53.57$63.34$78.35$89.28$98.56 2.31
Email 2,171 $42.60$51.04$61.33$79.06$91.13$101.83 2.40
Meta 1,647 $21.72$26.69$31.52$39.85$44.30$48.31 1.85
Other Search 1,546 $48.61$59.36$70.73$90.11$103.10$115.65 2.47
Other 236 $34.89$41.27$47.44$59.65$68.05$74.15 2.14
Social/Link 102 $26.63$31.86$36.96$47.46$51.04$54.59 1.82
Channels with <30 customers hidden as noise. Caveat: first_visit_source has high "direct"/"unknown" share — many real paid-channel customers fall there if attribution cookies expire or they didn't click an ad on first visit.
Per-cohort detail (all months — partial values marked with *)
Cohort Customers % Sub LTV 30d LTV 90d LTV 180d LTV 365d LTV 540d LTV 730d Avg Orders Repeat % Loyal %
2023-01 3,713 13.2% $43.97$61.31$78.74$118.95$146.37$174.62 3.72 53.7% 39.4%
2023-02 2,584 11.3% $48.75$62.04$78.06$116.61$140.77$168.72 3.37 54.0% 38.9%
2023-03 2,020 9.5% $48.93$59.30$75.36$110.01$132.29$156.34 3.12 52.1% 36.5%
2023-04 1,912 4.9% $36.73$45.28$58.96$87.87$105.02$126.31 2.74 48.7% 33.0%
2023-05 1,565 5.8% $40.70$46.99$60.83$83.54$98.58$113.19 2.91 44.0% 27.7%
2023-06 1,341 5.7% $37.30$43.57$54.62$68.81$79.33$89.35 2.19 40.1% 23.9%
2023-07 1,305 6.4% $39.92$50.14$65.64$83.97$100.14$112.65 2.53 43.5% 27.8%
2023-08 1,338 5.7% $38.46$48.06$60.44$75.56$89.64$99.80 2.40 40.4% 24.7%
2023-09 1,532 3.7% $40.09$51.64$61.12$75.31$89.12$99.23 2.34 41.8% 24.8%
2023-10 1,565 5.6% $42.43$54.04$62.84$75.86$86.75$93.91 2.26 41.2% 25.3%
2023-11 2,430 4.8% $50.06$57.64$66.31$79.96$93.63$102.61 2.21 40.9% 23.1%
2023-12 1,595 4.3% $43.86$51.28$58.63$72.66$81.83$89.83 2.19 35.2% 19.9%
2024-01 1,642 3.8% $44.27$53.32$62.07$77.31$87.54$97.47 2.26 37.5% 22.6%
2024-02 1,533 4.1% $40.20$48.72$56.61$71.34$80.38$89.89 2.24 34.6% 21.5%
2024-03 1,669 3.6% $40.04$48.49$55.28$70.46$79.30$87.65 2.21 35.8% 21.9%
2024-04 1,833 2.7% $39.17$45.08$52.83$67.85$75.38$83.54 2.07 34.9% 19.6%
2024-05 1,397 3.5% $39.40$46.14$55.78$71.51$80.02$88.35* 2.08 35.4% 19.3%
2024-06 1,080 4.4% $39.63$47.65$62.24$78.14$90.41$97.38* 2.29 37.3% 23.2%
2024-07 1,003 5.5% $42.63$51.90$64.76$77.61$88.28$92.90* 2.15 37.2% 21.1%
2024-08 1,184 5.0% $39.75$49.13$59.46$74.05$84.07$87.95* 2.25 38.8% 21.6%
2024-09 1,183 5.0% $45.84$56.33$64.62$77.83$88.07$90.31* 2.10 38.3% 22.1%
2024-10 1,354 6.2% $46.13$55.12$63.97$76.27$87.04$88.39* 2.08 36.3% 21.5%
2024-11 2,070 3.8% $47.96$54.21$63.09$74.75$83.26*$83.27* 1.94 33.4% 16.8%
2024-12 1,469 4.3% $42.75$48.67$55.77$66.56$73.09*$73.09* 1.78 28.3% 14.8%
2025-01 1,358 8.6% $43.04$53.80$63.76$78.99$85.41*$85.41* 2.12 36.6% 20.8%
2025-02 1,268 6.9% $42.82$54.52$63.88$81.29$87.78*$87.78* 2.16 36.8% 22.0%
2025-03 1,627 8.4% $40.64$51.10$60.04$76.22$79.01*$79.01* 2.06 38.2% 21.6%
2025-04 1,795 6.9% $41.92$49.20$58.32$75.09$76.34*$76.34* 1.88 34.3% 18.7%
2025-05 1,061 8.6% $43.24$51.14$62.06$76.89*$76.91*$76.91* 1.94 35.8% 20.5%
2025-06 848 7.5% $31.70$38.68$48.63$59.36*$59.36*$59.36* 1.77 29.5% 17.7%
2025-07 804 10.8% $35.55$45.58$59.67$70.41*$70.41*$70.41* 2.01 39.2% 21.9%
2025-08 828 8.1% $37.37$46.86$59.21$66.03*$66.03*$66.03* 1.89 35.0% 19.9%
2025-09 908 8.6% $34.99$46.03$54.01$58.37*$58.37*$58.37* 1.77 34.8% 18.9%
2025-10 1,212 10.3% $38.51$47.23$56.32$58.24*$58.24*$58.24* 1.70 32.3% 15.6%
2025-11 2,291 9.2% $35.03$42.04$49.84*$49.86*$49.86*$49.86* 1.51 26.7% 11.4%
2025-12 1,323 8.7% $34.41$41.88$47.21*$47.21*$47.21*$47.21* 1.44 23.2% 11.0%
2026-01 1,698 9.1% $33.63$42.23$44.08*$44.08*$44.08*$44.08* 1.44 25.4% 10.7%
2026-02 1,759 10.6% $31.93$38.58*$38.58*$38.58*$38.58*$38.58* 1.31 22.1% 6.7%
2026-03 1,493 9.5% $32.24$35.81*$35.81*$35.81*$35.81*$35.81* 1.19 15.9% 2.4%
2026-04 1,162 10.1% $35.71*$35.74*$35.74*$35.74*$35.74*$35.74* 1.06 5.5% 0.4%
2026-05 70 14.3% $48.53*$48.53*$48.53*$48.53*$48.53*$48.53* 1.00 0.0% 0.0%
Highlighted rows = cohorts with full 2-year (730d) data. Partial values marked value* are still accumulating.